For the first time in modern history, seven states redrew their congressional maps between censuses ahead of a midterm. The wave began when the Justice Department urged Texas to eliminate districts it called unconstitutional "coalition districts" and President Trump pressed Republican states for more favorable lines; California answered with a ballot measure suspending its independent commission, and courts forced changes elsewhere. After the Supreme Court's April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling ended the Voting Rights Act mandate for majority-minority districts, Tennessee became the seventh state, dismantling Memphis's majority-Black 9th District. Every one of these maps governs the November 2026 election — Tennessee's while a federal challenge is still pending. On paper the changes create up to ten new Republican-leaning seats and six Democratic-leaning ones; analysts project the realistic net effect at roughly one to four seats toward Republicans, depending on the political environment.
Litigation status as of July 2026. Maps can still change — Tennessee's faces a pending federal injunction motion, Missouri faces a possible repeal referendum, and Virginia's counter-redistricting amendment goes to voters in November 2026.
Texas up to +5 R
Converted five Democratic-held districts — including Houston's 9th and the Austin–San Antonio 35th — into seats Trump carried by 10+ points, after a DOJ letter targeted four "coalition districts." Analysts project realistic GOP gains of 2–3 given South Texas's swing voters.
California up to +5 D
Voters suspended the independent citizens' commission through 2030 — an explicit response to Texas — redrawing the far-north 1st, Central Valley 22nd, and Riverside-area 41st among others. Three likely Democratic flips plus two toss-ups.
Missouri +1 R
Cracked Kansas City's 5th district three ways — using Troost Avenue, the city's historic segregation line, as a boundary — and stretched it 200 miles into rural counties, flipping Emanuel Cleaver's seat from Safe D to Trump +18.
North Carolina +1 R
Reshaped the northeastern 1st district — the state's historic Black Belt seat — by swapping four Democratic-leaning counties for Republican coastal ones, moving it from Trump +3 to Trump +12. Rep. Don Davis is running on the new lines as one of the House's most endangered Democrats.
Ohio nominal +2 R
Ohio's 2021 map expired by law, forcing a redraw. Unlike the partisan redraws, this map passed with both parties' commissioners in a negotiated deal: nominally 12R–3D, but Toledo's 9th (Kaptur) and Cincinnati's 1st (Landsman) are rated toss-ups, and Akron's 13th got bluer.
Utah +1 D
The only redraw ordered by a court against gerrymandering: after the Utah Supreme Court ruled lawmakers couldn't gut 2018's anti-gerrymandering Prop 4, a judge voided the map splitting Salt Lake County four ways and adopted one with a Democratic-leaning 1st district. Ben McAdams is favored to return to Congress.
Tennessee +1 R
Eight days after the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling gutted the Voting Rights Act's majority-minority mandate, Tennessee repealed its own ban on mid-decade redistricting and split Memphis three ways among the 5th, 8th, and 9th districts — erasing the state's only majority-Black, Democratic-held seat. The new 9th stretches 250 miles into Middle Tennessee and rates roughly R+10 on 2024 results, though only R+4–6 on 2020 results. Rep. Steve Cohen retired after 20 years; state Rep. Justin J. Pearson of "Tennessee Three" fame is running to hold the seat.
| State | Seats (D / R) | Two-Party Vote Share | Efficiency Gap | Map Favors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Efficiency gap computed from certified two-party votes per Stephanopoulos & McGhee (2015): (wasted D votes − wasted R votes) ÷ total two-party votes; positive values favor Republicans. Uncontested races are imputed as a 75/25 split of the state's median contested-district turnout. Only states with 7+ districts are shown — the measure is unstable for small delegations.
District boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary files for the 114th–119th Congresses. Election results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House constituency returns (CC0), 2014–2018; FEC "Federal Elections" official publications, 2020–2022; 2024 winners from the unitedstates/congress-legislators project (margins pending certified-returns integration). Racial demographics: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates (2021 and 2022 vintages, matched to each map era's boundaries). Ranked-choice races (AK, ME) use final-round tallies; Louisiana races decided in runoffs use runoff tallies.